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Evaluating the Market Need for Your Project

It may be very tempting for a company to look to Open Source as a way to save a particular project, to gain notoriety, or to simply have a good story to end a product category. These are not good reasons to launch an open-source project. If a company is serious about pursuing this model, it needs to do its research in determining exactly what the product needs to be for an open-source strategy to be successful.

The first step is to conduct a competitive analysis of the space, both for the commercial competitors and the freeware competitors, no matter how small. Be very careful to determine exactly what your product offers by componentizing your offering into separable ``chunks'' that could be potentially bundled or sold or open-sourced separately. Similarly, don't exclude combinations of freeware and commercialware that offer the same functionality.

Let's continue with the database vendor example above. Let's say there are actually three components to the vendor's database product: a core SQL server, a backup/transaction logging manager, and a developer library. Such a vendor should not only compare their product's offering to the big guys like Oracle and Sybase, not only to the smaller but growing commercial competitors like Solid and Velocis, but also to the free databases like MySQL and Postgres. Such an analysis may conclude that the company's core SQL server provides only a little more functionality than MySQL, and in an area that was never considered a competitive advantage but merely a necessary feature to keep up with the other DB vendors. The backup/transaction logging manager has no freeware competition, and the developer library is surpassed by the Perl DBI utilities but has little Java or C competition.

This company could then consider the following strategies:

Replace the core SQL server with MySQL, and then package up the core SQL server functionality and backup/transaction logging manager, and sell Java/C libraries while providing and supporting the free Perl library. This would ride upon the momentum generated by the MySQL package, and the incredible library of add-on code and plug-in modules out there for it; it would also allow you to keep private any pieces of code you may believe have patents or patent-able code, or code you simply think is cool enough that it's a competitive advantage. Market yourself as a company that can scale MySQL up to larger deployments.
Contribute the ``extra core SQL server functionality'' to MySQL, then design the backup/transaction logger to be sold as a separate product that works with a wider variety of databases, with a clear preference for MySQL. This has smaller revenue potential, but allows you as a company to be more focused and potentially reach a broader base of customers. Such a product may be easier to support as well.
Go in the other direction: stick with a commercial product strategy for the core SQL server and libraries, but open-source the backup/transaction logger as a general utility for a wide array of databases. This would cut down on your development costs for this component, and be a marketing lead generator for your commercial database. It would also remove a competitive advantage some of your commercial competitors would have over open source, even though it would also remove some of yours too.

All of these are valid approaches to take. Another approach:

Open-source the entire core server as its own product, separate from MySQL or Postgres or any of the other existing packages, and provide commercial support for it. Sell as standard non-open-source the backup/logging tool, but open-source the development libraries to encourage new users. Such a strategy carries more risk, as a popular package like MySQL or Postgres tends to have been around for quite some time, and there's inherently much developer aversion to swapping out a database if their current one is working fine. To do this, you'd have to prove significant benefit over what people are currently using. Either it has to be dramatically faster, more flexible, easier to administer or program with, or contain sufficiently new features that users are motivated to try it out. You also have to spend much more time soliciting interest in the project, and you probably will have to find a way to pull developers away from competing products.

I wouldn't advocate the fourth approach in this exact circumstance, as MySQL actually has a very healthy head start here, lots and lots of add-on programs, and a rather large existing user base.

However, from time to time an open source project loses momentum, either because the core development team is not actively doing development, or the software runs into core architectural challenges that keep it from meeting new demands, or the environment that created this demand simply dries up or changes focus. When that happens, and it becomes clear people are looking for alternatives, there is the possibility of introducing a replacement that will attract attention, even if it does not immediately present a significant advance over the status quo.

Analyzing demand is essential. In fact, it's demand that usually creates new open-source projects. Apache started with a group of webmasters sharing patches to the NCSA web server, deciding that swapping patches like so many baseball cards was inefficient and error-prone, and electing to do a separate distribution of the NCSA server with their patches built in. None of the principals involved in the early days got involved because they wanted to sell a commercial server with Apache as its base, though that's certainly a valid reason for being involved.

So an analysis of the market demand for a particular open-source project also involves joining relevant mailing lists and discussion forums, cruising discussion archives, and interviewing your customers and their peers; only then can you realistically determine if there are people out there willing to help make the project bear fruit.

Going back to Apache's early days: those of us who were sharing patches around were also sending them back to NCSA, hoping they'd be incorporated, or at the very least acknowledged, so that we could be somewhat assured that we could upgrade easily when the next release came out. NCSA had been hit when the previous server programmers had been snatched away by Netscape, and the flood of email was too much for the remaining developers. So building our own server was more an act of self-preservation than an attempt to build the next great web server. It's important to start out with limited goals that can be accomplished quite easily, and not have to rely upon your project dominating a market before you realize benefits from the approach.

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Last updated: 1999-08-06